The UFC hasn't put on an event in Brazil since 1998, before the Fertittas and
Dana White took over and LONG before the big Fox television deal the
organization announced last week. It will be a triumphant return for the
octagon, as demand for tickets would have filled a soccer stadium. They probably
hopre it will be a triumphant return for some of their most popular Brazilian
fighters as well, since the card is chock full of them and headlined by Anderson
Silva, possibly the greatest Brazilian MMA star of all time (and putting
finishing touches on his application to be the greatest MMA star of all time
period).
But throughout his 13-fight winning streak in the UFC, Anderson Silva hasn't been
very predictable. With one of his previous losses, Yushin Okami, standing across
the cage and a massively pro-Spider crowd egging him on, there's no telling what
kind of performance we'll see from the mercurial champion.
Anderson Silva (c) vs. Yushin Okami
Bruce: Okami handed Silva his last win, albeit by DQ. Since then, Silva has gone on to
become the longest reigning champion in the UFC, rattling off 13 straight
victories. Okami hasn't put together as impressive a win streak, but he's
battled through the middleweight ranks to secure a shot at Silva and his title.
I just can't bring myself to vote against Silva in this one. Home field
advantage? Silva. Grudge? Silva. I think things are just too stacked. WINNER: Silva
by KO in 2nd
Matt: This is the last hurdle before Anderson Silva becomes the
"greatest of all time" in MMA. You can murmur about a superfight with Georges
St. Pierre, but GSP is dragging his feet worse than Floyd Mayweather, so by the
time it actually happens Silva will be even closer to retirement. The Spider
hasn't lost since that 2006 DQ against Okami, so this is his chance to avenge
one of his few losses. We may never see him as motivated as he will be for this
fight, unless maybe that rematch with Chael Sonnen materializes. Okami isn't
just some "Irish"
Terry Conklin being paraded out for a payday; he's quietly earned this shot
after being The Only Contender Left Standing in the middleweight division. Dana
White and co. kept shuffling Okami to the back of the deck and he just kept
showing up on top. Of his five losses, four went the distance (including losses
to Sonnen and Rich Franklin). He hasn't been finished since 2003. I sincerely
think he has a legitimate shot at the upset...but I'm totally fooling myself.
Silva will bounce around for one or two rounds and then finish this one off
late. WINNER: Silva by submission in 4th
Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Forrest Griffin
Bruce: I'm really not sure which way to go on this one. Griffin won their last fight
with a rear naked choke, but that was nearly four years ago. Since then, both
fighters have had serious ups and downs. Both have lost the Light Heavyweight
Title, Griffin to Rashad Evans and Rua to Jon Jones. Rua has the home field
advantage, but I can see Griffin going “ugly American” in this one. I think this
one ends up with hands flying and someone going down. WINNER: Griffin by KO in 3rd
Matt: It's tough to say this about a guy who is so damn
likeable, but I don't think Forrest Griffin has a truly remarkable victory to
his credit. He's had two wins in the past two years, and both were against aging
former champions (Tito Ortiz and Franklin). That came after a two-fight KTFO
losing streak to more athletic strikers (Anderson Silva and Evans). Before that,
he turned an upset over a debuting-but-injury-plagued Shogun into a title fight
against Rampage Jackson, which he won through "right place, right time" luck.
It's up to the reader to decide if I meant the leg kick that shut down Rampage's
game or the judges who handed Griffin two rounds he didn't win. Now it's 2011,
and Shogun's bum knee from 2007 has been surgically repaired. He couldn't
deliver combinations with any speed or prejudice in the first fight, and that
allowed the bigger Griffin to wear him down and make it a brawl. I don't think
Forrest gets as lucky this time. WINNER: Rua by TKO in 2nd
Brendan Schaub vs. Antonio Rodrigo Minotauro Nogueria
Bruce: Minotauro is coming off a loss to Cain Velasquez. Schaub has ripped off four
straight wins since losing to Roy Nelson in The Ultimate Fighter finale. I've
been impressed with Schaub since he started on TUF. Nothing has happened to
change my opinion. He's a fighter on the rise. He's also my pick in this one.
WINNER: Schaub by TKO in 1st
Matt: I get pulled in two directions
when we pick these fights. There's the cynical, realistic side that wants to
pick based on records or marginalize a guy's resume (see my Griffin hatchet job
above). Then there's the more idealistic, sports-movie-loving side that wants to
see the underdogs win and the great personal stories persevere. Back in his
prime (or his UFC heavyweight title run), Nogueria would go into a fight like
this, take a ton of abuse and slowly work his BJJ until he catches a limb and
holds on tight. Now that he's coming off knee and hip surgery, it would be nice
to see him recapture the magic in his home country. But the cynical side says
that he didn't get surgery on the suspect chin that turned his lights out
against Frank Mir and Cain Velasquez. Schaub isn't championship level yet, but
this fight will put him in the conversation. WINNER: Schaub by KO
in 2nd
Ross Pearson vs. Edson Barboza
Bruce: Barboza is an undefeated Brazilian kickboxer with a smidge of BJJ. Pearson is a
taekwondo/judo fighter. I've said it before and I'll say it again now: Never
vote against the BJJ guy. Pearson will give Barboza all he can handle, but I
just don't think its going to be enough. WINNER: Barboza by decision
Matt: Like most of his British brethren, Pearson's got no
ground game. When he fought a guy with some BJJ skills (Cole Miller) he tapped
in the second. I don't think Barboza will need that long. WINNER:
Barboza by submission in 1st.
Luiz Cane vs. Stanislav Nedkov
Bruce: Our last fight featured an undefeated Brazilian. This one features an undefeated
Bulgarian in Nedkov. This is his UFC debut and Zuffa is feeding him a perpetual
low card Brazilian in Cane. Nedkov looks to be more well rounded. This has the
feel of the UFC getting behind a rising star. I'm on the bandwagon. WINNER: Nedkov by TKO in 2nd
Matt: Cane was supposed to be a young gun in the light
heavyweight division before he got schooled by two relative old-timers (Rogerio
Nogueria and Cyril Diabate). Seems like he's a setup man now, but he's also
fighting in his home country while Nedkov has to fight on another continent for
the first time in his life. Call it culture shock or the adjustment to the
octagon, but I think Nedkov struggles with his environment. WINNER: Cane
by unanimous decision
Thiago Tavares vs. Spencer Fisher
Bruce: Now that we're into the prelims the selection process gets even more difficult.
Tavares has only two wins in his last six. Fisher has lost three of four, a pair
by unanimous decision. Unfortunately for Fisher, I don't think his luck changes
this time out. WINNER: Tavares by unanimous decision
Matt: Man, what happened to Spencer Fisher? That guy used to be
awesome. In fact, Thiago Tavares has seen better days, too. It's like
someone kidnapped this fight in June 2007 and threw it in a time machine set for
Saturday. Loser of this fight probably gets sent packing, and I feel like
Tavares already has a foot out the door. Fisher has had a rough stretch but he's
got bigger names on his record. I think he keeps his head above water for three
more months with a win here. WINNER: Fisher by TKO in 2nd
Rousimar Palhares vs. Dan Miller
Bruce: Given the skill sets of these two fighters, this one will be decided on the
ground. Given the UFC experience disparity, I think the odds are in Miller's
favor. I look for a hard fought submission victory in this one. WINNER: Miller by submission in 3rd
Matt: Miller's one of the go-to scrappers when someone needs to
fill in, and that's exactly what he's doing here. The upside is that his job
stays safe even if he takes a few extra losses. The downside is that he is still
gonna take those losses. WINNER: Palhares by submission in 1st