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Oscars 2012: Best Supporting Actress

The Academy Awards are Sunday, so it's time for the annual predictions from the revered GonzoGeek panel: Bruce, Chris, John, Matt, Stephe and Matt’s copy of “Wrestlemania 2000” for the Nintendo 64.

Today: Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: 
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer, The Help

Odds (usually) provided by Bovada (formerly Bodog), but just like yesterday's Best Supporting Actor category they don't have individual odds. It's Octavia Spencer at -1500 and The Field at +700.


WINNER: Bérénice Bejo
I remember the first time I saw a trailer for “The Artist.” I thought that looks interesting. Of course, that was before I knew it was a silent movie about being in silent movies. Once I heard that, I knew it was Oscar bait. If there’s anything the Academy loves more than lauding aging stars, it’s stroking its own ego. I’m sure there are still a few Academy members who worked before the “talkies.” Hollywood won’t miss the opportunity to celebrate itself. I’d like to pick Octavia Spencer here. She was my favorite part of “The Help.” I’m just afraid that she and Jessica Chastain are going to split the “Help” votes which will allow Bejo to slide into a win here.

In a Perfect World: Melissa McCarthy’s run would continue and she’d add an Oscar to her Emmy, but we know from past experience that the Academy doesn’t award comedic excellence.


WINNER: Octavia Spencer
Lots of new blood in this one, the five thespians put together having but one prior nomination (Janet McTeer, ‘Tumbleweeds’), but I see the race coming down to three: Berenice Bejo, McTeer, and Octavia Spencer. Hollywood likes a lot of things. Included among these are nostalgia (the Artist), and gender bending (Albert Nobbs). What it likes most though is heart-swelling triumph (see also: Plummer’s nod) and this will give Spencer the slightest of edges for the win.

In a Perfect World: A replacement nominee is found for Melissa McCarthy. While I appreciate the effort to include the comedic arts, this choice looks like tokenism. Shailene Woodley held her own with a bunch of heavy weights. She might not have won, but the category would look better with her in it.


WINNER: Octavia Spencer
Total coin-flip here. I've only seen one of the nominated performances, and I wish I could go back and wipe most of that movie out of my brain. I'll go with Spencer, based off her win at the Golden Globes. She's also the heavy favorite in the Vegas odds. And while I'm at it, do people actually bet on who wins the Oscars? I guess it could be worse. Placing a wager on the Academy Awards seems like a fun diversion. If you're laying money down on the Kids' Choice Awards, however, you have a problem.

In a Perfect World: They rename "Bridesmaids" to a more accurate title... "Kristen Wiig Gets Shit On In A Movie That's Way Too Long."


WINNER: Octavia Spencer
Like Plummer, Spencer's the unstoppable juggernaut here. She's been gaining momentum throughout awards season, and she had the most memorable moments of The Help (even if Viola Davis was the heart of the film). I'm really baffled by Chastain's nomination for the same film, not just because she allegedly had a better performance in The Tree of Life but because she isn't even the third best actress in The Help. Alison Janney and Bryce Dallas Howard had braver performances as unapologetic bigots, and even Chastain's best moments piggyback off of Spenver. I'll confess to not having seen anything of McTeer's performance, but I know I'm not the only one. It's great to see McCarthy get a nomination here for her star-making turn, but like Nick Nolte and Jonah Hill, the nomination itself will have to be the reward.

In A Perfect World: Eh, Spencer still wins, but maybe Chastain or McTeer get omitted for Shailene Woodley in The Descendants.


WINNER: Melissa McCarthy
I have a strange sense of humor and I’d like to see this little wild woman waddle out to the podium, dry hump the presenter, then cover herself in salad dressing to give her acceptance speech (You Tube or Hulu her appearance on SNL). In reality, it’ll be one of the girls from ‘The Help’ or ‘The Artist’.

But still, I’m rooting for salad dressing.

In a Perfect World: Whoever wins gets covered in slimed with cool ranch like they do on Nickelodeon...or Carrie.

Wrestlemania 2000 *

WINNER: Octavia Spencer
Of the two nominees from The Help, one is the odds-on favorite, so the other one (Jessica Chastain) gets the early hook.

Bérénice Bejo, who spent most of her time opposite a guy who doesn't speak much - Paul Bearer
Melissa McCarthy, an extreme character whose schtick is equal parts funny and skeevy - Val Venis
Janet McTeer, who basically just stole someone else's gimmick - Shane McMahon
Octavia Spencer, charismatic and outspoken in the face of social taboos, not afraid of making someone eat shit - Triple H

It's bedlam from the opening bell as all four actresses battle it out. Spencer and Bejo spill to the outside while McCarthy and McTeer mix it up inside the ring. After some double-teaming and a few piledrivers, Spencer finally sends Bejo packing at 6:01 with an inside cradle. McCarthy and Spencer then team up to brutalize McTeer, but she proves to be an easy out, succombing to a snap mare from McCarthy and a Spencer pinfall at 7:53. The two heavyweights (sorry, bad joke) take turns with the advantage, going back and forth. McCarthy starts to slow down but Spencer shakes off every attack, even going so far as to taunt her foe. After reversing an Irish Whip into a powerslam, Spencer locks McCarthy in her finishing move - The Terrible Awful - and it's academic at 12:39.

* Wrestlemania 2000 picks the Oscars by (1) eliminating the nominee with the longest odds, (2) matching up the remaining four with a character from WM2K’s extensive circa-1997 WWF roster and (3) Staging a CPU-generated four-man elimination match where the last man standing is the Oscar winner. No wrestlers are repeated during the contest.

Posted in: Movies