A last-minute training injury to Georges St. Pierre cut the knees out from under
UFC 137, another weird twist in a chaotic card. Nick Diaz was originally to get
a welterweight title shot at the event, but the social anxiety disorder he
disguises as "not giving a fuck" took that opportunity away. Turns out he might
not have had the chance anyway, as new #1 contender Carlos Condit finds himself
off the card and on the shelf until GSP's wheel returns to prime Terminator
shape.
In the meantime, the makeshift co-main now becomes the makeshift main. BJ Penn
(Condit's original opponent before Diaz blew it) headlines his first card since
UFC 118 last summer against Diaz. It's a meeting of two guys who tend to talk a
big game and then back it up. We'll see which tough talker can take advantage of
this unexpected showcase.
B.J.
Penn v. Nick Diaz
Matt: This is sort of a win-win because I get to watch both of
these guys get punched in the face and nobody gets a title (or even a guaranteed
title shot) at the end of it. With GSP and Condit on the backburner for a few
months, this one is probably The Battle To Fight Jon Fitch In The Co-Main Event
Of A February Show. I am hot and cold on Penn as a person, but feel like he
would be intolerable to have a conversation with. Meanwhile, I can't look at
Nick Diaz for more than 10 seconds without wishing he would catch on fire. In
the cage, Penn has only been beaten by elite wrestlers with exceptional motors
since 2006. Diaz is primarily a boxer and he doesn't push the pace the way GSP
or Frankie Edgar do, so it will be interesting to see how he handles a quicker
and more agile fighter. I'll bet that missing the press conference that got him
kicked from the original main event was the last time Diaz sniffs title
contention in the welterweight division. WINNER: Penn by unanimous
decision
Bruce: Obviously not the fight originally advertised, GSP's removal comes at a good
time for Penn. He needs a decisive win and he should get it here to put some of
the shine back on Prodigiousness. WINNER: Penn by submission in 2nd
Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione
Matt: I have this false impression of Cheick Kongo as the worst
fighter in the heavyweight decision. Now I KNOW that's wrong as long as Joey
Beltran is under contract, but can you name a strong Kongo performance without
using Wikipedia? His best win was a three-round decision over Cro Cop that was
so soft they use it in nurseries to sooth newborns. He's the most intimidating
bore in the UFC, and he'd have one foot out the door if not for his stunning
come-from-behind knockout over Pat Barry (another Worst Heavyweight contender)
earlier this year. Mitrione hits as hard as Barry but doesn't have the same
problems (being short, getting KTFO'd easily). It's the biggest fight of his
career to date and I think he makes the leap. WINNER: Mitrione via
unanimous decision
Bruce: Mitrione was the heel on the Heavyweights season of TUF. He laid in the bushes
and got his shots in. Since then he's gone 5-0 in the UFC. I think it will be
6-0 after this one. Kongo has become one of UFC's tomato cans. All the
elements are in place for a Mitrione win. WINNER: Mitrione via TKO in 1st
Mirko Filipovic vs. Roy Nelson
Matt: Cro Cop was another recipient of a giftwrapped win from Pat Berry that
prolonged his career. He's coming off a pair of knockout losses and may have
reached that Chuck Liddell Threshhold, where a guy whose jaw used to be cut from
marble can now get rocked by a strong breeze. Nelson's biggest weakness in his
last fight was his cardio. Everyone else blamed his weight. He blamed the flu.
Either way, he's not going to need great cardio in this fight. WINNER:
Nelson via KO in 1st
Bruce: Cro Cop v. Big Country. Both men come in with two consecutive losses. We all
know the rule...3 and you are out. I think the UFC is ready to be rid of the
rapidly declining Cro Cop. Of course, I'm sure being shed of the Kimbo-Killer
wouldn't hurt Dana White's feelings either. WINNER: Nelson via TKO in 2nd
Jorgensen v. Curran
Matt: Jorgensen was a top contender at bantamweight before
dropping a five-round decision to champ Dominick Cruz...which is what happens to
every bantamweight contender who fights Cruz. I am guessing he's still in "top
contender" form. Meanwhile, Curran is a guy who hasn't been seen since the
WEC. He was always praised as being an experienced, smart and all-around nice
fighter. People usually said these things about him while he was getting his ass
kicked. WINNER: Jorgensen via submission in 2nd
Bruce: I'm not sure which way to go on this one. So, like my dad taught me, go with
your first instinct. WINNER: Curran via split decision
Hatsu
Hioki v. George Roop
Matt: Hioki is ranked as a top three featherweight, he has lost only once since
2007 and this is his UFC debut. He might be in line for a shot at Jose Aldo if
he wins. Roop is a guy who never looked that good on The Ultimate Fighter but
has stuck around time and time again by beating guys he wasn't supposed to beat.
Few Japanese stars have managed the transition to the Octagon well. That plus
Roop's persistence is enough for me to go bold and pick the upset.
WINNER: Roop by split decision
Bruce: Hioki's skill set is more well rounded. This one looks like his to lose. I
don't think he will. WINNER: Hioki via submission in 3rd